Posted by
Steve on Saturday, July 15, 2006 1:48:51 PM
First, I must get a little personal. My granddaughter, Brianna, won one race today in the 7-8 year old group. She won a blue ribbon in the Butterfly. That is a stroke I cannot do and am envious of anyone who can.
My rant today is about "Scientists" making predictions of dire events to occur in the future. One of the latest is people predicting that 1 billion people will die from second hand smoke in the next 10 years. That is a little ridiculous. First, the study that reports that second hand smoke is so dangerous was undoubtedly flawed. The results were too unmistakable to be believed. Previous studies had stated that second hand smoke, while not danger free, was not very dangerous. There will need to be studies to confirm this latest prediction. My guess is that these further studies will come in less clear cut on the danger of second hand smoke.
Another prediction in the 1970's was that we only had enough oil to last until the year 2000. It is now 2006 and we have not run out of oil by any stretch of the imagination. People conveniently forget that prediction because it was so wrong. But, if someone predicts that we only have enough oil to last until the year 2040, people will trumpet it from the housetops. Even though, it is probably as wrong as the first prediction.
People that believe in Global Warming forget that in the 1970's people were prediction Global Cooling. We were supposed to be starting a new ice age shortly after the turn of the century in 2001. That has not happened either. Are we supposed to believe the predictions of dire things happening because of Global Warming? I think not. These predictions are based on computer models that are based on flawed ideas. Any predictions they make from these computer models is wrong. We can probably place bets on the prediction being wrong and have a greater chance of winning than if we bet on the prediction being right.
It just galls me that people can be so gullible. Just because person A is a scientist, that does not make him smarter than you or I. It just means he went to school and studied science. He/she probably took classes from the sheep that believe in global warming and so doesn't know any more about the truth than my dog does. Scientists should question these established ideas and try to prove them right or wrong. They should not blindly follow where the ignorant lead us.