Posted by
Steve on Thursday, November 02, 2006 5:20:52 PM
Karl Rove has to be chuckling to himself these days. He could hardly have scripted a better last week than the one John Kerry gave him a few days ago. Even the apology was really a non-apology. This has energized people that I know. They have gone from indifferent to the election to excited about the election. Democrats claim that the comment will have no impact on the election (survey on iwon.com). I beg to differ. It will have a big impact.
As I heard on the Michael Medved show today, Republicans will turn out like it is a Presidential year. Democrats and Independents will turn out like it was an off year election. That will make a huge difference in the outcome of the election. It is reported that early ballots are unusually heavy in their return. Early ballots are usually Republican. They are being reported as Republican in the news at this time. The biggest impact will be on military families and their relatives and friends. That will expand the military vote way beyond the usual impact it has in any individual race.
What impact will this have on the outcome of the election. First, elections are now polling closer than they have in a long time. Polls regularly lean toward the Democrat party. If a Democrat is leading by a small margin, they are probably tied or even behind. If it shows they are behind, the election is lost. The main thing to pick up in the polls is the trends. In the vast majority of the races, the Republican candidate is on a roll. It may not show them ahead, but they are catching up quickly.
In the Senate, it now looks like the Republicans will hold all their current seats except for Rhode Island. They look like they will pick up Maryland, Michigan and one other state I cannot remember. That would give them an increase of two seats. In the House it looks like a similar scenario. They should keep almost all their seats and may pick up five to eight seats. That would be an almost unprecedented victory. Democrats would have to spend a long time licking their wounds. One of the best things is that the Clinton spin machine is running this election cycle. Losing on that scale would not be good for the Clinton's. It may even open things up to allow someone else to be the Democrat standard bearer in 2008.
Here in Arizona, it looks good for the Republicans. One of the worst is that JD Hayworth is complaining about coordination between the DNC and the Pederson campaign to produce a commercial. The DNC could only have obtained pictures of Pederson with his permission and cooperation. That is illegal under campaign laws. Everything else looks good for the Republican congressional delegation. There is not much change in the Governor's race. It still looks like our reigning moonbeam will continue. It may be a lot closer than she imagines. In the State House and Senate races, there is talk of the Republicans gaining a veto-proof majority. That would mean an increase of two seats in each house. That is possible and a possibility.