Posted by
Steve on Wednesday, March 21, 2007 4:38:51 PM
Now is the time for all who want to be President to stand up and be counted. There is no more time to "think" about the Presidency. Do you want to be President of the United States of America or not. If so, announce for the Presidency and get in the race. If not, then say so and let the ones running have the field free to fight the good fight.
Why do I say this? Right now, Newt Gingrich and Fred Thompson are "thinking" about running for President of the US. It is ok to think about being President. But, these two "thinkers" are sucking some of the oxygen out of the room for the three serious candidates running for President. The public opinion polls show that Rudy Giuliani is in the lead with Newt Gingrich or Fred Thompson in second. John McCain and Mitt Romney are essentially tied for third. That puts the "thinkers" in position to get the nomination if they choose. If they choose not to run, their "supporters" would have to choose one of the three remaining candidates. My guess is that most of them will go with Romney.
With Newt and Thompson out of the race, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney would essentially be tied for the lead for the Republican nomination. For Romney that is his chance to shine. For Rudy, that is a disaster. He has to keep a sizeable lead to be viable. Once another candidate catches him, he will fall like a rock. Many of his supporters are there because they like his stance on the war on Islamo-Fascism. But, that is not much different than Romney or McCain. If either one catches Giuliani, they will pass him because they will pick up the values voters that Giuliani cannot claim in a primary.
The longer the "thinkers" take to make up their mind, the more difficult it will be for a true candidate to emerge. If they wait until the last minute, many voters will not have a chance to review their support. So, it makes it important that Gingrich and Thompson make up their minds soon. That will give everyone a chance to sort out who they really support when we know who is running. Right now, we do not know if we have all the horses in the race.
My guess is that Gingrich will decide not to run. He has too many negatives to win in the general election. He could win in the primaries, but the general election would be a problem. On Thompson, I am not so sure. If he decides to run, the nomination is his. If he pulls out, I believe the nomination will go to Mitt Romney. For Giuliani to get the nomination, either Thompson or Gingrich would have to delay their decision until late in the fall. That would give Giuliani a chance to nail down support. If they pull out now, the support for them goes to the candidate with the most conservative credentials. That pulls that candidate even or close to even with Giuliani. When that happens, people will say, values may be important after all. If they do, Giuliani loses. He can only win if he keeps values out of the process. To do that, he has to maintain a significant lead in the polls leading into the primary season in January and February 2008. He cannot afford to slip to even or with a one or two point lead.
We are now waiting on the "thinkers". I hope they make up their minds within the next month. It would surely make life much easier for those of us who are interested in the future of the US.