Posted by
Steve on Saturday, October 06, 2007 1:31:37 PM
I saw a note on the Drudge Report that said that Mrs. Bill Clinton has the money, but Barak Obama has the crowds. Which brings us to the question, which is better?
On a local scale it is more important to have crowds. Having lived in small towns and rural areas, if people come out they will probably support you. Money in this situation will help, but people will show support with their feet. If Mrs. Bill Clinton cannot draw the crowds that Barak Obama pulls, it spells problems for her. Having money for a big media blitz will not make that much difference in the rural areas.
In urban areas having money is more important than crowds. Urban populations do not show up at events like people in rural areas. You may get larger crowds, but they are a much smaller percentage of the population. Money in an urban situation will trump large crowds as people will get most of their information through the media. The large crowds may translate into votes, but they can be trumped by a big media blitz.
What does this mean in Iowa? I have never been to Iowa. But, I did live in North Dakota and eastern Colorado for a total of around 8 years. Based on my observations in those areas, the crowds will mean Barak Obama will win most of the votes in rural Iowa. Rural Iowa is a major portion of the state. It is not as large a percentage of the state as in North Dakota, but still substantial.
Mrs. Bill Clinton should be able to saturate the airwaves in urban Iowa. That will mean she will take substantial votes in urban Iowa. The fact that Barak Obama is doing well in rural parts of the state will be reported in the newspaper and on the news. Mrs. Bill Clinton cannot do anything about that. At least I don’t think she can. She may be able to institute a news blackout, but I don’t think it would work. That would cut into her leads in the urban parts of the state.
Overall, I believe that Barak Obama will have a great shot at defeating Mrs. Bill Clinton in Iowa. There is a substantial portion of the state that is rural. Even the parts of the state that could be considered urban are not really urban in the east coast meaning of the term. The Iowa urban would almost be considered suburban or even rural in New York or New Jersey. That is why I do not think she can build a big enough lead in the urban areas to counteract the Barak Obama lead in the rural areas. .In other words, she is in trouble in Iowa.
If Mrs. Bill Clinton is in trouble in Iowa, she may have trouble other places. She is genuinely not liked by many people. She is feared by almost every living thing on the planet. She is liked by almost nobody. Her support may be a mile wide, but it is an inch deep. If there is a viable alternative to Mrs. Bill Clinton, people will flock to that person if given a chance. That is particularly true if that person can show that they can beat Mrs. Bill Clinton in an election.
Mrs. Bill Clinton may have a big lead in the polls. I think that it is just Democrats doing what they did with John Kerry in 2004, flocking to someone who they feel can be elected. If any chinks show up in her armor, that huge lead could disappear in a second. The same thing happened to Howard Dean when a chink appeared in his armor. He was on his way to the nomination in 2004 when he tripped in Iowa. Mrs. Bill Clinton may have exactly the same problem. People actually liked Howard Dean. Nobody likes Mrs. Bill Clinton. She has nothing to fall back on. She has no reserves. She either wins out or goes down in flames. For the good of the country, I hope it is down in flames.