Posted by
Steve on Tuesday, October 30, 2007 4:38:50 PM
It is looking more and more like the Republican primary is narrowing down to two people, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. The important influence people in the early primary states seem to have recognized this and are lining up into the two camps.
Senator Gregg from New Hampshire announced that he is endorsing Mitt Romney this week. That is an important endorsement. He is one of the two biggest names in the Republican Party in New Hampshire. The other one is not going to endorse anyone in the primary this year. This really gives Gov. Romney a boost in New Hampshire. He was leading anyway, but having Senator Gregg endorse him makes it less likely that anyone would be able to overtake him in the primary.
Rudy’s plan of losing the early states and winning big on Super Tuesday is being reworked. Someone convinced him that losing is never a good strategy. So, he is starting to put all his eggs into New Hampshire. It is closest to New York and the one that gives him the best shot at this late date. Iowa and South Carolina are too far from New York and too different politically to be able to make up ground quickly. New Hampshire is different because it is politically more like New York. If Rudy cannot take New Hampshire he will have a difficult time rallying for a lot of wins on Super Tuesday. This is especially true given that he is now attempting to win in New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney’s plan that he drew up way back at the beginning is showing why it was so wise. He spent time and energy in Iowa. That scared everyone out of Iowa and basically left the state to him. He now has to seal the deal, which I have no doubt that he will. In New Hampshire, he is parlaying his popularity from Massachusetts into popularity in New Hampshire. It is working very well. It has made it difficult for other candidates to get traction in New Hampshire.
The plan is even working well in South Carolina. South Carolina has moved into the number 3 position in the primary season. At first, it appeared that Fred Thompson would win it in a walk. After some campaigning has taken place, Mitt Romney is emerging on top in South Carolina. The resistance to Romney’s religion is reducing. People are realizing that what standards a person has is more important than what religion a person belongs to. That is allowing large numbers of people to come to the Romney camp.
Rudy Giuliani is still leading in the national polls. Those polls are basically name recognition polls. The polls that are important are the polls where people have been campaigning. Those polls show that Mitt Romney is in front or nearly in front everywhere he has campaigned. Rudy can claim that he is in front or nearly in front except for Iowa and South Carolina. Rudy does not have much chance of winning any Southern State, except for Florida. He can win Florida because of the number of people from New York that have moved to Florida to retire.
When I made the prediction that I thought Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee he was still a long shot. He very much has a chance today. In fact, he is really the better positioned of the two candidates if the truth be known. Mitt Romney has a plan and is working that plan to perfection. Rudy Giuliani is relying on being America’s Mayor after 9/11. He has relied on everyone handing him the nomination based on his actions on and after 9/11. He is finding that people are looking at what he believes and looking for something else. That is why Mitt Romney is running so well. We shall see how the chips fall during the campaign season. Right now, it is looking pretty good for the Romney for President Campaign.
Right now, the signs are small for any campaign. The real movement of voters into one camp or the other has not occurred. Romney still needs to give his speech similar to the one that John F. Kennedy gave about being a Catholic. When he does that, there should be large numbers of evangelical Christians move into the Romney camp.