Posted by
Steve on Tuesday, November 06, 2007 4:00:44 PM
In the past couple of days I heard the question, “should evangelicals get behind one candidate or is it still too early?” I believe the answer is that evangelicals should get behind one candidate or Rudy Giuliani will be the candidate.
Right now, Rudy Giuliani is the leading candidate to be the Republican nominee for President. Evangelicals are split between Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and undecided. Evangelicals make up the largest single voting block in the Republican primary season. As such they can have a big say in who is the nominee of the Republican Party. There are not enough Evangelicals to single handedly select the nominee, but enough to make almost anyone competitive.
If Evangelicals stay the way they are, split between a many of candidates, it dilutes their power. With Evangelical power diluted, it will be difficult for any of them to mount a successful campaign against Rudy Giuliani. Rudy has the liberal wing of the Republican Party and those other Republicans that want to win over anything else. The Republicans that want to win over anything else can be moved from Rudy Giuliani if they see that there is someone else that can win. For that reason, it is important to select a candidate that has established conservative ideals and has a good campaign organization to allow the campaign to win.
Looking at the Republican candidates that meet the general requirements of the Evangelicals only two really stand out. They are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee is a Baptist Preacher. As such, he is an Evangelical himself. He has been coming on strong since his strong showing in Iowa. He is an excellent speaker and can motivate an audience. His weakness is that he raised taxes a lot in Arkansas. Much of the tax raising can be explained by a Democrat Assembly, but not all. His major problem as the one to support for Evangelicals is that he has no national organization. His organization is new and forming. That means it is hit or miss, particularly in the vitally important early primary states.
The second candidate is Mitt Romney. Romney’s strengths are that he has a great organization. He has a plan and has followed it to perfection. Right now, he is leading in Iowa and expected to win. He is leading in New Hampshire and expected to win. He is second in South Carolina. He is leading in Michigan. He is extremely intelligent. He holds “Ask Mitt Anything” meetings wherever he goes. These are completely unscripted events that get the public involved in asking questions of a real Presidential candidate. His biggest weakness for Evangelicals is that he is Mormon. Evangelicals have a problem with Mormon Theology. Politically, Mormons and Evangelicals are the two most closely aligned groups in America. If Evangelicals can get over the Theological problems, they would see the political synergy.
Which candidate is better? Right now, Mitt Romney has a much greater chance of being the Republican nominee than does Mike Huckabee. That is without any Evangelical support. With Evangelical support, Mitt Romney would be just about unbeatable in the South. That would just about insure that he is the nominee of the Republican Party.
For the past couple of weeks many Evangelical and Conservative leaders have recognized that to stop Rudy Giuliani they need to select a candidate now. The candidate with the best chance of beating Rudy Giuliani and most closely aligned with them politically is Mitt Romney. Almost every day for the past 10 days a new Evangelical or Conservative leader is announcing their support for Mitt Romney. It has not turned into massive voter support for Romney’s candidacy. It may yet yield massive support, but none has materialized in any of the polls yet. As we get closer to the time for voters to go to the polls, I think that Evangelical voters will follow their leaders and support Mitt Romney. That should give him the boost in support that he needs to get the nomination. Mitt Romney has to make his “John F. Kennedy” speech. That speech basically tells Evangelicals they are not electing a pastor, they are electing a President. I think that would be the tipping point and the numbers would start flooding in after that talk.
I think the election will be between Mrs. Bill Clinton with her pessimistic view of America and her destructive political machine and Mitt Romney with his optimistic view of America and his positive political machine. The contrast will be stark. People will be attracted to the light and vote for the positive view of America.