Posted by
Steve on Wednesday, December 19, 2007 8:25:03 AM
Recent poll results are showing that people are taking a second look at Mike Huckabee and he is not wearing well. His 15 point lead in Iowa is now 3 points among all voters. Among likely caucus goers, he is in second three points behind Romney.
In my opinion, the reason he is failing to keep his lead is that he is trying to run as a Democrat. He sounds more like John Edwards than a Republican. His foreign policy report that came out last week was filled with the aw-shucks type of stuff that jumped him into the lead. It also had a liberal sprinkling of Democrat populism. Put those two together and it makes him sound like a foreign policy idiot.
You also add in the gaffs he has made in regard to religion. He is well versed in Evangelical Christian terminology and says things that make them happy. He has no clue how to say things that other religions will accept. As a result, he is turning off people that are not Evangelical Christians. Also, people are bringing up talks he has given between 1998 and 2007. In these talks, he is constantly talking about how he wants to take America for Evangelicals. That is not the kind of talk that non-Evangelicals want from a President of the United States.
Not everyone is ready to be a front runner. Mike Huckabee seems to fall into that category. When he got to the front, he had not done his homework. When the NIE report came out, he knew nothing about it for at least 24 hours. His staff should have prepped him on the NIE report within the first few hours after it was released. Either the staff did not think it was important or he put them off. Either way, he comes out looking bad.
Another issue that is hurting Mike Huckabee is the release of the prisoner that then went and raped and murdered a woman in Missouri. With 10 years as Governor of Arkansas, he had lots of decisions to make. It would be easy to say that the decision was one that was a mistake. The problem is that he lobbied the parole board to release the prisoner on parole. His rationale to the parole board was that the person had found “Christ”. When you look at his record, you find a number of prisoners that were released after they found “Christ”. It looks like the prisoners discovered that if you say you found Christ, they would be released. Huckabee’s explanation of what happened in the decision sounds like he is trying to hide something. Now it would not matter what he says, he would look bad.
One of the rules in politics is to get the bad news out there early and on your terms. That way you can constantly refer to the bad news as old news. Mike Huckabee is letting the bad news drip out slowly. Also, when the bad news comes out, he is less than honest with the public about his involvement. This makes him look sleazy. The one thing an Arkansas politician cannot look like is sleazy after the Clinton’s.
Other candidates are responding differently to Huckabee’s new status as front-runner. McCain is surging a little in New Hampshire. McCain has surged into second place, a long way behind Romney. Rudy has faded everywhere. This may be a response to the fact that Mrs. Clinton is failing everywhere too. Rudy runs best against Mrs. Clinton. Mrs. Clinton runs best against Rudy. When one slips in the polls, the other follows. Thompson is barely showing a pulse at this time in either Iowa or New Hampshire. Romney is holding his own in Iowa and New Hampshire. For him, the expectations are to take second in Iowa and first in New Hampshire. That could still happen. With Huckabee slipping everywhere, a Romney victory in Iowa would be huge though not unexpected.