Posted by
Steve on Thursday, January 03, 2008 9:41:24 AM
Today is the day of the Iowa Caucus. All of the campaigning in Iowa will be finished by this evening. Then we all wait to see what the citizens of Iowa think of all of the candidates.
Today on the way in to work, I listened to Bill Bennett. He still thinks that Mike Huckabee might be the winner of the Iowa Caucus. When he made a scenario for McCain, he put Huckabee in the lead. That to me is incorrect. Huckabee has been falling for two weeks. He was leading by about 11 percent two weeks ago. His lead is supposed to be almost zero today. That is from polls taken before his bizarre press conference on Monday and his showing of the commercial he said he would not run. He is showing that he cannot control his own campaign in one state. How can he lead a country?
The more likely scenario is that Mitt Romney will win Iowa tonight. He has a vast support network set up. He has volunteers on the ground and a plan for them to execute. On Tuesday and Wednesday his volunteers made over 50,000 telephone calls to Iowa voters urging them to the Caucus sites to support Mitt Romney. That kind of support will show up in the Caucus results. Huckabee does not have any volunteers that have a plan for tonight. Huckabee is relying on people coming out of pure support for him. Romney is relying on people coming out to help execute a plan. When there is a plan, the people will try to execute it. That means Romney will win Iowa by probably at least 5%.
The real question is who comes in third. The third place in Iowa means they still have credibility in the future primaries. Thompson and McCain are the names bandied about for third. My hope is that Thompson takes third in Iowa. Thompson, Giuliani and McCain are generally pulling from the same crop of voters. If that crop is split between three candidates, it makes it easier for my candidate (Mitt Romney) to win it all.
Giuliani remains viable until Feb. 5, when there are a lot of primaries. That is because of his name recognition. He will be hurt if he comes in below Ron Paul in Iowa. That is a real possibility. Ron Paul has campaigned in Iowa and just might pull out a victory over Rudy Giuliani in Iowa. That would really hurt Giuliani’s credibility nationally. Giuliani is hoping for a third place showing in New Hampshire to propel him to victory in Florida and the other Feb. 5 states. He could easily come in lower than third in New Hampshire and be in real trouble come Feb. 5. That is especially true if Mitt Romney pulls out victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
On the Democrat side, it is not looking good for team Clinton. She polls in first place. Pundits and those that know Iowa politics put her prospects in the Caucus as little better than third. Obama is generally considered the front runner. If his people show up, he should have no trouble defeating Mrs. Clinton. That would severely damage her hopes for the nomination. She is one who everyone thinks will be the nominee. If she stumbles, it opens up the possibility that someone else could be the nominee. The more that idea that she can be defeated sinks in, the less likely it is that she will actually win the nomination.
The interesting state is Michigan. Early on, Michigan was declared off limits to campaigning because they moved their date up. Obama and Edwards withdrew from the Michigan primary to honor that decision by the Democrat party. The decision was reversed recently. That means that Mrs. Clinton is the only name on the ballot in Michigan. She will win by default, unless the other two can convince Michigan voters to write their names in. Michigan also has more delegates than Iowa and New Hampshire put together. That would give Mrs. Clinton more delegates than Obama, even though she lost two states and only won once.
We shall see tonight. I predict: Mitt Romney and Barak Obama will win. Mike Huckabee and John Edwards will take second. Fred Thompson and Mrs. Bill Clinton will take third.