Posted by
Steve on Friday, January 04, 2008 8:28:25 AM
The Iowa Caucus is over. Barak Obama won on the Democrat side. Mike Huckabee won on the Republican side. That makes my predictions one out of two.
Last I heard on the Democrat side, Barak Obama won the Caucus and there was a fight for second between Edwards and Clinton. Edwards held a slight lead over Clinton for second place 30% to 29%. Obama took 38% of the Caucus vote. That is a major blow to the Clinton machine. She came in as the inevitable nominee and favorite to win all campaign contests. The results just blew a big hole in the middle of her inevitability.
The big question is whether Obama will be able to use this win to also win in New Hampshire. By winning in Iowa, he hurts McCain’s chances in New Hampshire. They both appeal to the Independent voters and now the Independent voters have to choose whether to vote for Obama and making history or McCain and repeating the past. My guess is that Obama and making history will win most of their support. It is not often that you get a chance to make history. The past is always nice because it is familiar, but making history is exciting.
On the Republican side, Huckabee got 34% and Romney got 25%. Thompson came in third with 13% and McCain also came in with just under 13% of the vote. The big surprise was that Ron Paul got 10% of the vote. Rudy Giuliani did not factor into this race at all. That will come to haunt Rudy as the campaign goes along. He did campaign in Iowa in the closing days of the campaign.
Mike Huckabee has not campaigned anywhere except for Iowa. That puts him behind the 8 ball in all the other states. He will not win another state. He may be competitive in South Carolina or another southern state, but will not win again. John McCain will be competitive in New Hampshire. Obama’s win in Iowa will take some of the wind out of his sails. That will allow Mitt Romney to catch and pass McCain for the New Hampshire victory. Thompson will also pull votes away from McCain. He will be in the race at least through New Hampshire and appeals to similar voters. Giuliani also appeals to the same Independent voters that will vote for McCain. That effectively splits those votes and should allow Mitt Romney to pull out a victory.
If Mitt Romney does not win either Iowa or New Hampshire, he will not pull out of the race. He will have taken second to two different people. In each case the person he lost to will not be able to replicate the victory. The problem it gives him is that it enables Rudy Giuliani to claim the mantle of winner. If Romney had won Iowa and New Hampshire, it would have severely damaged Rudy Giuliani. Now it will be a fight to the finish. We may not know the nominee even going into the convention. That would really be something. We have not seen a brokered convention since before I was born. I can remember conventions having multiple ballots to select a nominee. That may happen again this year. What that will mean is an increased interest in the Republican nominee. With no knockout punch people will watch the convention and want to know who the nominee will be.
Next week New Hampshire will vote. That will give us a clearer picture of who the nominees will be. Already two Democrats have dropped out of the race. They were not going to win anyway. I think some Republicans may drop out after New Hampshire. Some more Democrats may feel the need to call it quits as well.