Posted by
Steve on Monday, January 07, 2008 8:18:36 AM
The New Hampshire Primary is tomorrow. Last week, the leaders for the prize were Mrs. Bill Clinton and John McCain. Over the weekend, the numbers were trending away from those two to Barak Obama and Mitt Romney.
Last week, Barak Obama was down 10% to Mrs. Bill Clinton in New Hampshire. Then, he won the Iowa Caucus. Now, after only 5 days, he is leading Mrs. Bill Clinton by about 10%. Some of that change is Democrats looking at the two and deciding that he is the more electable candidate. Some of that change is Independents looking at the prospects of voting for John McCain an older candidate or Barak Obama a new fresh candidate and deciding on the newer, fresher candidate.
The positive change for Barak Obama has had a negative change for John McCain. He was counting on the Independent voters to vote for him in the primary. That would counter weight the Republican voters voting for Mitt Romney. If John McCain does not win in New Hampshire, he is basically finished as a candidate. He may hang on for a primary or two, but he would be finished. He is already having trouble raising money. Losing in his best state would be a disaster for his fund raising.
Mitt Romney did win the Wyoming Caucus on Saturday. That win did not get much press. Wyoming is not a very big state and therefore does not command the press respect that Iowa and New Hampshire do. But, Wyoming is a victory in the 50 states that are holding Presidential delegate selection contests.
If Mitt Romney pulls out New Hampshire after being so out of it after Iowa, he will get a big bounce. It may be enough to pull him even in South Carolina, but probably not. A week ago, Mitt Romney was losing to John McCain by 11% in the polls. Some polls over the weekend show him winning by 1-3%, others show him 1-3% behind McCain. The polls were taken prior to the debates on Saturday and Sunday. In both debates, Mitt Romney did extremely well. John McCain looked like an angry old man on Saturday and may have really hurt his chances. McCain did much better on Sunday he dropped the angry old man routine.
Mike Huckabee sounded like a McCain supporter on Saturday in the debate. That cannot help him in New Hampshire. Huckabee will probably end up with about 5-6% of the vote. He will be a non-factor in the race. That will not damage him to his supporters as they do not see the candidate, they see the Preacher. He will do well in South Carolina regardless of what happens in New Hampshire. If Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire, the vote in South Carolina will be close. If Mitt Romney loses New Hampshire, South Carolina is Huckabee’s in a walk-away.
My predictions for New Hampshire are as follows: Barak Obama wins by about 10-12%, a clear convincing win; Mitt Romney pulls out a squeaker 35-30% over McCain.