Posted by
Steve on Wednesday, January 09, 2008 8:43:58 AM
The New Hampshire primary is over and the winners are known. Mrs. Bill Clinton won a close vote on the Democrat side. John McCain won big on the Republican side.
That Mrs. Bill Clinton won the primary was a big surprise. As late as last evening, people were predicting that she would lose by over 10%. Her own campaign was hoping for a loss of less than 8%. Why they chose 8% is beyond me, but they chose the number, not me.
John McCain was predicted to be in a dead heat with Mitt Romney and pulled off a big win. That is a stunner as Romney was predicted to have picked up 4% in the last couple of days and be in a dead heat.
One writer last night thought that what happened was this: Independent voters that went to the polls thought that Obama was going to win big. That would mean that they did not need to vote for Obama. They could vote for McCain and give him a big win, too. Enough of them made that decision that both races turned out different than everyone expected.
For the Democrats, it puts Mrs. Bill Clinton back in the driver’s seat for the nomination. She will be almost impossible to knock from that perch. Obama would have to win the next state to have any chance at defeating Mrs. Clinton for the nomination. Since that state is Michigan, and he is not on the ballot, that is nearly impossible. He would have to have a write-in campaign that defeats Mrs. Clinton. That will happen when we get snow in July in Phoenix, AZ. In other words, it ain’t going to happen.
For the Republicans, is John McCain the new front runner? No, he may have won New Hampshire and may even win Michigan (possible, but doubtful). For the long haul, he has little or no chance on winning the nomination. He is disliked by the Republican base. He has stabbed us in the back so many times on so many different issues that the feelings of dislike go very deep. With Romney taking second in both major contests and winning in Wyoming, he would have to be considered the front runner right now. He has an excellent shot at winning in Michigan.
The Michigan primary will be all messed up this year. The Democrat primary has only one person on the ballot. That means a lot of Democrats will take Republican ballots and vote for the weakest Republican on the list. That will scramble the results in Michigan quite a lot. It will make it difficult for anyone to accurately predict what will happen. It might even mean a win by Ron Paul. Ron Paul would have to be considered the weakest of all the Republican candidates. If I was a Democrat, I would vote for the weakest Republican candidate. If Obama gets a write-in campaign going, that would keep Democrats voting Democrat and make the Republican primary more representative.
What about the other candidates? John Edwards is probably finished. He finished a distant third in New Hampshire. He may stick around until South Carolina, but I think his campaign is finished. Fred Thompson is basically finished on the Republican side. He also will stick around until South Carolina. Rudy Giuliani finished way back in New Hampshire. He actually campaigned there and is from a nearby state. That will hurt his chances. He is also failing in Florida. He is in for the long haul. But he is severely wounded. He was helped by the Mrs. Clinton victory in New Hampshire. Ron Paul is also finished as a real candidate. He has some money so will stay in. Duncan Hunter also did poorly. He will probably drop out of the race in the next day or two.
My original predictions were that Mitt Romney and Mrs. Clinton would be the nominees. I still think that will be the case.