Posted by
Steve on Friday, January 11, 2008 9:38:42 AM
The Republicans held another debate in South Carolina last night. There were three winners, two losers and one that does not matter. The winners were: Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. The losers were: John McCain and Mike Huckabee. The one that does not matter is Ron Paul.
Ron Paul does not matter because he will never get more than 10% of any vote. He will never be the nominee. The reason is that he is not serious about the war against Islamo-Fascism. On social issues and the Constitution, Ron Paul is more correct than everyone else in the Republican field. BUT, the most important issue is the war. On the war, he is ignorant or ill informed. I do not believe that he is ill informed. There is a lot of information out there and he has heard it all since 9/11/2001. Therefore, he chooses to ignore the warnings. That would mean a disaster if he were selected as our next President.
The losers were John McCain and Mike Huckabee. John McCain showed why he should not be the front runner. He does not understand that everyone except him understand that the McCain-Kennedy Amnesty bill was just that – Amnesty. He insists that it provided all sorts of things it did not provide. He is trying to make us all believe that he is for securing our borders when we all know he is not. That only reminds us why we should not select him as our next nominee.
Mike Huckabee again showed a complete lack of understanding of economic principles. When he was asked about why taxes were higher in Arkansas when he left office than when he started, he went on and on about what they spent the money on. He is talking to a Republican audience that believes in lower taxes and growing the private sector and starving government. To praise big government was a tactical error. He compounded his error by saying that at least bridges in Arkansas did not fall down. That was an insult to Minnesota. Minnesota is one of the Midwest states that the Republican Party has targeted to turn from blue to red in the next election. If he became the nominee, he can kiss that state off the list.
Fred Thompson won because he showed a good grasp of the issues. He stood out because he challenged Mike Huckabee and showed Huckabee to be the big government loving person that he is. This may have helped him overtake Huckabee in South Carolina.
Rudy Giuliani won because he is strong on defense and that was highlighted in the debate. This debate questioning gave the candidates chances to talk about important issues. Talking about the war always helps Rudy Giuliani look well.
Mitt Romney had a big job to do in the debate. He had to show that the second place showings in Iowa and New Hampshire were flukes. He came out firing on all cylinders this night. He really appealed to Michigan voters by talking about ways to grow the Michigan economy. Any person who is serious about growing Michigan out of their depression would have to be impressed by Romney’s grasp of economic issues. A Romney win would do wonders for the Michigan economy.
The other event yesterday that is troubling is the fact that Romney pulled ads in South Carolina and Florida. I can see pulling the ads in South Carolina. That would have been a long shot win. Huckabee and Thompson are more likely going to win those states. Florida is baffling. That is a state where he is polling at or near the lead. He has Jeb Bush behind him and things look good. Pulling the ads might just be temporary, until Michigan is over. At least, I hope that is the case.
Predictions: Michigan – Romney; South Carolina – Thompson. Florida follows shortly after South Carolina and I believe that it will be close between Romney and Giuliani. I believe that if Romney wins Michigan, he will win Florida. If Romney loses Michigan, he will lose Florida. I have not done so well on predictions, but I hope I improve. I think that if my predictions hold true, Huckabee and McCain will return to their second class status where they belong.