Posted by
Steve on Wednesday, January 16, 2008 3:22:11 PM
Yesterday, I predicted that Mitt Romney would win Michigan in the neighborhood of 9%. I was correct. That is even though the polls had John McCain running neck and neck with him up until the end. I also predicted that Mrs. Clinton would have some problems on the Democrat side and would not get 60%, she got 56%. I feel good about my predictions. Those are my first correct predictions of the primary season.
For the Republicans, it is on to South Carolina. That primary is on Saturday. The polls currently have John McCain leading with Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney trailing in that order. Thompson is closing fast by taking people away from Mike Huckabee. Thompson is almost within hailing distance of the top three candidates. After the people in South Carolina hear about John McCain taking a loss in Michigan after leading big only a week ago, I think he will lose support there as well. McCain did not do well there in 2000. His support has to be rather soft. I would think that some people will jump from the previous perceived front runner of John McCain to the new perceived front runner of Mitt Romney. That may put Romney in first or second place in the voting. For him to take first in South Carolina would really be an upset of major proportions. If Thompson does not beat Huckabee, he will probably drop out of the race.
Shortly after South Carolina, there is the Florida primary where all the candidates are campaigning. That will be a real test and it might be Rudy Giuliani’s last stand. If Rudy loses Florida, I do not see him surviving very long. He will show that his support is not as strong as advertised and he will probably drop out by early February. Right now, Huckabee, McCain, Giuliani and Romney are virtually tied for the lead in Florida. Romney will probably get a bump for winning in Michigan. Whoever wins in South Carolina will also get a bump. That may push out the other two candidates from the race altogether.
The Democrats next primary is in Nevada. That is coming up soon. Obama and Clinton are fighting over everything trying to get the upper hand in Nevada. In the Michigan primary, Mrs. Clinton only got 30% of the black vote. That does not bode well for her in the next primary states and in the general election. The union that represents the restaurant workers voted to back Barack Obama. That really got the Clinton team upset. The Clinton’s feel entitled to the union vote and for Obama to get it really hurt.
The Democrats also held a debate last night in Las Vegas. They really battled over race, gender and other insignificant issues. All of them did poorly. Mrs. Clinton did the worst. Barack Obama did the best with John Edwards coming in a close second. The interesting thing is that they only allowed those three to attend the debate. They excluded all the candidates that had no chance to win the Nevada primary. The debate was a major snooze. The highlight was when Brian Williams stating that he was glad to be in Los Angeles, he was in Las Vegas. That brought everyone a good laugh.
The primaries are starting to winnow out candidates. Some have already dropped out of the race, most of them Democrats. The next few primaries will shorten the list of Republican candidates as well. It is ok to have a lot of candidates, but at some point there can be too many. That time is here for the Republicans. The Republicans need to shorten the list down to three or four candidates in the next week. That will enable voters to concentrate on the candidates that have a real chance to become the nominee. For example, there are too many Republican candidates. Duncan Hunter is an excellent candidate. He would make an excellent President. However, he has no chance of being nominated as the candidate of the party. There are others that could be named as well. I think that after Florida, that will happen to the Republican list.