Posted by
Steve on Saturday, January 19, 2008 11:52:50 AM
Today, South Carolina and Nevada primaries are being held. In the Nevada primary, Romney is expected to win as he is about the only candidate that has spent time in the state. On the Democrat side, the race is between Obama and Clinton. After the ruling by the judge that the state can hold caucus meetings in casinos, that opened the door for Obama to win. Obama had been endorsed by the food handlers union and they have to work in the casinos. With the caucus being held in the casino, they can attend on breaks. That will give him a big boost in votes. Clinton had tried to suppress the vote by the lawsuit. It is interesting that no-one tried to suppress the teacher’s union vote by stopping caucus meetings in schools. Obama will probably win in Nevada. Any time Mrs. Clinton loses, America wins.
In South Carolina, it is a close race between John McCain and Mike Huckabee for the top spot. The last poll I saw put them almost tied with 25% for McCain and 21% for Huckabee. Romney has about 18% and Thompson has about 16%. Unfortunately for America, I expect John McCain to win in South Carolina by a very narrow margin. Patrick Ruffini suggested that voters for Romney and Thompson put their votes behind Huckabee. His reasoning is that a win by Huckabee is less damaging than a win by McCain. He is probably right, but I could not vote for either McCain or Huckabee with a clear conscience. I would feel that I would be deserting my core values to vote for either candidate. I can understand his reasoning. Other people may be able to vote for Huckabee and deny McCain a victory, but I could never vote for Huckabee. Huckabee’s anti-Christian bias and his misunderstanding of what the Bible teaches are too much to overcome.
After this vote in South Carolina, there are 10 days before Florida. The winner of South Carolina will get a big boost and the winner of Nevada will get a small boost. The endorsement of Romney by Ann Coulter this week will surely help him win some votes. She is very popular. A lot of people put a lot of stock into what she says. Even Joseph Farah of World Net Daily is resisting the tidal wave that is starting to get behind Romney. He is sticking with his Huckabee pick, even though he can see that Huckabee is not going to win.
Rudy Giuliani has put all his eggs in Florida. If he does not win Florida, he is pretty much finished as a candidate. He will be out of money and unable to get much in the way of campaign cash. The polls have Giuliani, Romney and McCain pretty much tied for the lead. There is a fourth name, but I do not remember if it is Thompson or Huckabee. Any one of the four could win as they are all within two percentage points of one another. The theory is that Giuliani has hit his floor in Florida. I think he has probably hit his maximum. Over the next 10 days, someone will break out ahead in Florida and I do not expect it to be Giuliani. The person that breaks out ahead in Florida will have a great shot at taking a lot of states on February 5. My feeling is that Romney and McCain are the only ones with a chance to break out ahead in Florida and take a big chunk of states on Feb. 5. Since Republican voters do not like McCain, I do not think that McCain is that person to run the table. I still think that Romney is that person to take the lion’s share of delegates.