Posted by
Steve on Monday, February 04, 2008 3:59:02 PM
A week in politics is a very long time. One week ago, the California primary poll had John McCain ahead of Mitt Romney by about 5%. Today, the California poll has Mitt Romney ahead of John McCain by 8%. The difference between then and now is that almost all of the conservative talk radio hosts have endorsed Mitt Romney in the last week. They have also hit home the point that a vote for Mike Huckabee or other candidate is a vote for John McCain.
Similar, though not as dramatic, results are happening all over the country. Where Romney was behind in almost all of the Super Tuesday states by substantial margins, he is now ahead or close in all but the Northeast and Arizona. That gives hope for tomorrow. Romney has a good chance to take home a good share of the delegates from tomorrow’s primaries. He may not win enough to be in the lead in delegates, but he will at least be close in delegates.
Huckabee is hanging tough. He refuses to withdraw from the primaries. When Rush Limbaugh says that a vote for Mike Huckabee is a vote for John McCain, Huckabee says that a vote for Romney is a vote for Mrs. Bill Clinton. I am not sure how he got to that point, but he got there. He has become rather bizarre in the last couple of weeks. He seems to be running hard to be John McCain’s running mate.
My predictions for tomorrow are as follows: I predict that Romney will take a majority of the delegates tomorrow. He will lose in New York, the northeast and Arizona. I predict that he will win almost everywhere else. The wins may be close, but they will be wins. Romney will only get blowouts in Utah and Montana. He might get a decisive win in California if this swing continues. Conservatives are heeding the message put out by the talk show hosts that now is the time to put up or shut up about the Reagan revolution. If the Reagan revolution is to be salvaged, they need to vote for Romney. If they vote for anyone else, the Reagan revolution will be lost and may never be recovered.
I already voted for Romney. I did so the first day I received my ballot in the mail. Some others will have done the same thing and will not be able to respond to the changing environment. Those that waited will be able to make the difference between John McCain and Mitt Romney. It is interesting to me that when the campaign season started; Mitt Romney was considered some type of an establishment candidate. He has turned out to be the underdog. No matter what he spent in the early primaries, he is getting far more coverage now from the conservative bloggers than he ever did buying coverage. The coverage he is getting is also getting to a much more targeted audience than he had before. That should make the information getting to voters much more accurately targeted and effective. It does seem to be working. He is surging all over the country at the expense of all the other candidates.
The one thing I wish Romney would do is be more aggressive when pressed. When he is pressed, he has the tendency to act offended. But, he never gets angry. Sometimes it would be good to show your temper a little bit. I don’t mean swear and throw things, I just mean when pressed, call a spade a spade. That would be real effective coming from Mitt Romney.