Posted by
Steve on Tuesday, August 26, 2008 1:54:09 PM
Since the Democrats are carving themselves up at their convention, all discerning eyes turn to whom will John McCain pick as his running mate on Friday. Since he knows who the Democrats picked, he can select someone who will really help the ticket. Joe Biden did not really help the Democrat ticket in putting states into play or taking them out of play.
John McCain can pick the conventional person and has two good choices. I am biased, but his better choice would be Mitt Romney. Romney is a better speaker, better fund raiser and puts more states into play and takes some out of play for the Republicans. The other safe choice is Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. He is almost as good a choice as Romney. He is just not as conservative and only puts Minnesota and Iowa into play. Romney puts Michigan, Colorado and Nevada into play and takes Arizona out of play. Romney also can raise huge amounts of money. Tim Pawlenty will not get the pocketbooks to open up as much as Romney would.
OR McCain could do something unconventional and pick a minority or a woman. The best minority to pick would be Bobby Jindal of Louisiana. The women are Sarah Palin of Alaska and Kay Bailey Hutchinson from Texas. Selecting Bobby Jindal shows that the Republican Party includes minorities and puts them into top positions. This might help with the Hispanic vote; it will do nothing for the black vote. Bobby Jindal would be an exciting choice. Bobby Jindal will almost certainly be President one day. It just might be too early for a 37 year old candidate.
The two women could cause the women’s vote to move toward the Republicans. Traditionally the Democrats win the female vote by 10-15%. Barack Obama currently is only leading in the women’s vote by about 5%. Picking a woman would most likely make deep inroads into that Obama lead in the woman’s vote. McCain might actually win the woman’s vote by selecting a woman as a running mate.
The two candidates are contrasts. Sarah Palin is young and exciting. She is full of energy and would run rings around Joe Biden in their debate. She is smart and articulate. She is willing to stand up to the federal government as a Governor. That is something most Governor’s are not willing to do. Kay Bailey Hutchinson is a strong conservative. She has executive experience in the private sector which will help as being a Senator does not give you executive experience. Her drawback is the fact that she is not exciting. Also, she was indicted by a Democrat Prosecutor for some political misconduct. That was dismissed because of no evidence. But, it would be brought up if she ran for Vice-President. In my mind, Sarah Palin would be the better choice of the two female candidates.
Who would be the best for McCain to pick? The safest choice would be to pick Mitt Romney. Picking any of the other candidates except Tim Pawlenty would show that McCain might be trying to shore up some perceived weakness. Of the rest, the best choice would be Sarah Palin with Bobby Jindal very close behind. Kay Bailey Hutchinson would show that McCain is concerned about the female vote and that he is pandering. That is not a good sign. Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal are two people who will be running for President in the future with good chances to win. Why not give them a chance now? Both are a little on the young side, so it may be an election too early for either one.
My guess is that McCain will pick Mitt Romney. It makes the most sense and gives him the best chance to win in November. Palin and Jindal would also give him the good chance to win, but without the financial boost that Romney puts in the equation. That is why I believe that John McCain will select Mitt Romney as his running mate on Friday.