Posted by
Steve on Monday, September 08, 2008 1:58:47 PM
Over the weekend a lot happened to the political fortunes of the two parties. First, the polls indicate that the Democrats got almost no bounce from their convention (their second in a row) and the Republicans received a big bounce from their convention. The polls now have McCain somewhere between 3 and 10 points ahead of Barack Obama with less than two months to go. The Arizona Republic buried this news deep inside the first section. As they say in politics, a day is forever. Things will change back and forth in the next two months, but one thing is clear, Obama will not run away with the election. If Obama was going to run away with the election, he would be far ahead right now. McCain could win big, that remains to be seen. The Sarah Palin effect has yet to be analyzed. I think that when the story of the election is written, it will all turn on the selection of Sarah Palin as Vice President that turned the tide in the favor of McCain. The overreaction by the media helped cement Sarah Palin as the darling of the public.
Second, Barack Obama made another gaffe on a TV talk show yesterday. In talking about religion, he said, “…my Muslim religion.” That will confirm for many that Barack Obama is a closet Muslim. Others will now doubt that he really is a Christian. The saying goes that you cannot conceal a lie all of the time. Sooner or later the truth will come out in an unscripted comment. This could have been one of those times. Or Barack is trying to lure the McCain campaign into calling him a Muslim. He had stated earlier that the McCain campaign is trying to paint him as a Muslim and that it was not true. The McCain campaign shot back that they have never ever called him a Muslim. Obama has had to back off his statement that McCain called him a Muslim. This could be bait to get McCain to do so. I do not think that McCain will rise to take the bait. I think that they will just let this one fester on talk shows and in the blogs. That is where it needs to be discussed. The McCain campaign should focus on the issues, not on whether someone is a Muslim or not.
Third, it is also note worthy that the Republican convention was watched by more people than the Democrat convention. Also, McCain talked to more people than Obama talked to. Now the lead is only a few hundred thousand out of almost 40 million viewers, but that he was even close is news. Sarah Palin came in a close third about a million viewers below McCain and Obama.
Fourth, when you start looking at the polling in the different states you find some interesting facts. The most interesting is that McCain/Palin is only 9 points behind Obama/Biden. A couple of weeks ago that margin was close to 20 points. The selection of Sarah Palin seriously cut into the margin that Obama has in California. If McCain could take California, Obama would have no chance at being elected President. There are too many states that are reliable Republican states that give Republicans a fighting chance in every election. Republicans only have to take one or two swing states to win the election. Democrats have to have a series of events happen to take the election. The series of events do not seem to be happening for Obama.
My hope is that the tide that seems to be tending toward McCain/Palin continues. I have a feeling that it will. More and more people are seeing the media for what it has become the attack dog for the Democrat Party. As a result, people are turning to the alternate sources for their news and getting it from conservative voices. Once people get the truth about Obama/Biden they will not support them. That will continue the trend toward McCain. My current estimate for the Electoral College is about 300-240 for McCain. I may revise that again if California appears to be trending Republican.