Posted by
Steve on Saturday, September 13, 2008 10:12:15 AM
There is a sure sign that the Democrats believe that they are in trouble. They are floating a trial balloon to see if changing from Joe Biden to Mrs. Clinton would change their chances. Joe Biden started it all by saying that Mrs. Clinton would be a better choice for VP.
Changing VP candidates in the middle of a race is always bad politics. Every time it has occurred the party that did it lost the election. Unless there is a death, it is better to stay with the pick you made than change to another pick. It shows that you are desperate and in trouble. In Joe Biden’s case, he has not hurt the chances of the Democrats winning the election. He just has not helped in overcoming the Palin bounce that McCain received. If McCain had picked Romney or Pawlenty, we would not be talking about changing Joe Biden for Mrs. Clinton. As much as I like Romney, he would not have helped the ticket as much as Sarah Palin has helped the ticket. I am not sure anyone could have done as much.
The last time a major party changed VP candidates in the middle of a race was in 1972. McGovern had selected the Senator from Missouri, who bowed out after being nominated because he had received treatment for mental health. McGovern then went on to a crushing defeat at the hands of Richard Nixon. No-one has talked about changing VP candidates until now. They really must feel that they are in trouble to consider changing VP candidates.
If they change VP candidates they have to come up with some story on why Joe Biden was removed from the ticket. Joe Biden is very self-centered. He has hair plugs and an extremely white perfect smile. He takes excellent care of himself. They cannot use the excuse that he is in ill health; nobody would believe that for an instant. The only story people might buy would be that his wife is ill. The conservative media would be all over that one to check to insure that she really had an illness. If the Democrats just cooked up an illness as an excuse to get Joe Biden off the ticket, it would destroy any chance of a Democrat victory in November. They could not conceal that for two months. They could not say that Barack Obama made a mistake. They are promoting Obama as Jesus. Jesus would not make a mistake; therefore Obama cannot make a mistake like that.
If you wonder where I got the Obama is Jesus reference, a Tennessee member of the House of Representatives got up in the House and said that Jesus was a community organizer and Pilate was a Governor. Obviously referring to the fact that many on the left believe that Obama is the second coming. There are numerous references on the left to the fact that they believe that Barack Obama is the Messiah. That is why conservative talk show hosts refer to him as the dalibama, Obamamessiah, and other biblically associated names.
The Democrats are caught between a rock and a hard place. They want to replace Joe Biden, but have no viable option. They are falling further behind almost every day. Barack Obama is making more mistakes as he tries to stop the campaign from taking on water. Joe Biden is being the Joe Biden that all Republicans hoped he would be when he was selected. Democrat congressional candidates are starting to distance themselves from Barack Obama. This is especially true if the candidate is in a Republican leaning area or one that is typically competitive. All of these are signs of a campaign in real trouble. Changing VP candidates would be like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It might look a little different, but the result will be the same.
Changing the Vice Presidential candidate is a sign of desperation. The Democrats should only pull that trigger if they feel a huge defeat coming on. It would not change the overall outcome, but might stop some of the loss. What I mean is instead of losing by 30 points; they would lose by 20 points. The second part of the equation is whether Mrs. Clinton would even want to be on the ticket. She wants this ticket to fail. If it fails, she gets another shot in 2012. If it wins, she has to wait until 2016. Time will have passed her by in 2016. She is reaching the upper end of when candidates usually win the Presidency now. If she had to wait 8 years, she would have a much more difficult time convincing voters that she was still relevant.