Posted by
Steve on Thursday, November 20, 2008 12:45:17 PM
The news is out that Janet Napolitano will be the new head of Homeland Security in the Obama administration. That is good for Arizona. We will be rid of a bad Governor. The Department of Homeland Security will get the benefit of her lack of ability, but someone has to suffer her inadequacies.
For Arizona that is a real plus. We get rid of a Governor that does not understand anything about running a state. Jan Brewer gets to step up from Secretary of State to Governor. Jan Brewer will make an excellent Governor. She will be able to work with the legislature and solve the problems caused by Napolitano’s lack of ability. Janet Napolitano was never able to effectively work with the legislature on anything. The legislature had to fight her every step of the way. So, the problems of Arizona got worse and Napolitano tried to make us into California East. We are not as liberal as California, nor do I believe we will ever be as liberal as California. The urban population in California is so much greater in relation to their rural population than we have here in Arizona. The rural population will always be more conservative than the more liberal urban areas. This is true, even though Arizona has more people living within city limits than any other state in the country.
That changes the politics of Arizona in 2010 in a big way. We will now have an incumbent Governor. The incumbent usually wins in Arizona. That means the Republican Party will most likely control the Governor’s office after the 2010 election. It also bodes well for the other races in the state. Having an incumbent Governor heading the ticket will bring out Republican voters and that will mean Republicans will continue to control the State House and Senate. It will also mean problems for the Democrats running for re-election in Republican leaning districts like Harry Mitchell. The Democrats in those districts will have a hard time holding onto their seats if the Republicans come out to support Jan Brewer for Governor. John McCain will also be on the ballot. Right now, he is planning on running again. He has always been popular in the state and should also make it difficult on Democrats in House seats.
The job of the Republican Party here in Arizona is to recruit good, no the best, candidate they can find to run in each seat that has a Democrat or will be an open seat. If they do find excellent candidates, the chance of increasing the Republican presence in Phoenix and in Washington is great. If they fumble around and have just anyone run for these offices, Democrats will hold onto them.
I live in an area that is strongly Republican. The only Democrat that even dared to run in the past 8 years decided that he had had enough. That means that the Republican primary is the vote to determine who will sit in the seats in Phoenix and Washington in my area. We have had good to excellent candidates in my district. In a neighboring State House district, the Republican candidate did get in a dust-up over a campaign sign. That will most likely go to court.
I do see signs of a Republican resurgence in 2010 in Arizona. I am not as sure about the rest of the country, as I am not in the rest of the country. But, here in Arizona, things are looking good for Republicans in 2010 and 2012. That is good enough for me, right now. I can hope for more, but I can only do what I can locally. I will have to let the national chips fall where they may. Locally, I can have an impact on whether the party grows or dies. If I have my way, the Republican Party will get all the votes in my district in 2010 and 2012. That is unrealistic, but a goal to shoot for.