Posted by
Steve on Thursday, March 04, 2010 12:15:25 PM
Mike Gallagher asked a good question on his show today. Actually, he asked this question before, but today it hit home. The question is: Would Barack Obama be hurt more if his healthcare bill passes or if it does not pass? That is an excellent question. It is one that has multiple answers.
First, let’s look at what would happen if his healthcare bill does not pass. On a personal note, he loses face because an important piece of legislation that he wanted did not pass. That is very serious for a President. It is not terminally damaging, but it does hurt his chances to get any other parts of his legislative agenda through Congress. His opponents in Congress and elsewhere would be in full throat. They would hammer him unmercifully on his inability to get the signature piece of legislation through Congress. On the other hand, American healthcare would remain the best in the world. It would still have its flaws, but all other countries use us as their back up when their healthcare system fails. That would remain in place. The problem that Obama would have of losing face would be temporary. He could easily overcome that problem and be successful over time, if he learned from his mistakes. That is something I wonder if he is capable of.
Second, let’s look at what would happen if his healthcare bill passes. On a personal note, he would have his signature piece of legislation through Congress. He would rub that fact in everybody’s nose. There would be no stopping his crowing about how successful his healthcare system is. That would be despite the fact that nothing in his healthcare bill would take effect until 2013.
All the Democrats in Congress that voted for the healthcare bill would have it hang around their neck like an albatross for the next election. If the district is 90+% Democrat, they might survive to see 2011 still in office. If the district is any more evenly split than 90-10 Democrat, the Democrat would most likely be looking for employment come January 2011. The legislative hit would decimate the Democrats in Congress. The last time a party took a hit like the one in 2010 was 1994 and we would consider 1994 evenly split after 2010.
The healthcare bill would be the law of the land. It would be up to Congress in 2011 to repeal this monstrosity. They would have to get Barack Obama to sign off on the repeal, which would not happen. Depending on how many Republicans there are in the Senate, they might be able to overcome a veto. The odds on that would be somewhere near zero. It would be a Mexican standoff between 2011 and 2013. The Republicans would refuse to implement any of the provisions of the healthcare bill by starving it of funding. Barack Obama would be frantically trying to implement the bill by executive fiat. We would have two parts of the government actually fighting between themselves.
The only savior could be the Supreme Court. Since the healthcare bill is obviously unconstitutional, the Supreme Court should easily decide 9-0 that it was unconstitutional and end it. However, politics plays a part in Supreme Court decisions. The vote to declare it unconstitutional would most likely be 5-4 or less likely 6-3. That would depend on how many honest Democrats there are on the bench. I don’t hold much hope on any honest ones is why I expect the vote to be 5-4. If there was even one honest Democrat it could be 6-3, but that would really be stretching reality to get that.
To answer Mike Gallagher’s question, for Obama himself, it would be better to have the bill pass Congress. For the country, it would be better for the healthcare bill to languish in defeat. No matter how much I want the Democrat debacle in November 2010, the damage to the country of passing the healthcare bill is too much. We cannot put our faith in the Supreme Court actually reading the Constitution and putting out a ruling that follows the Constitution. I held that hope with McCain-Feingold. At first, they upheld its constitutionality. Now, they are starting to strike down parts of McCain-Feingold. We do not have the luxury of 10 years to wait between getting it wrong and then correcting your mistake. The Supreme Court would have one shot to get it right. I don’t have enough faith in them to get it right to want to play that hand, unless I have to.
For me, the best thing that could happen to Obama’s healthcare bill is for it to come crashing down to a resounding defeat. That would be best for the country. It might not be best for Republicans, but that is secondary to my country. What is best for America is my first choice, ALWAYS. What is best for Republicans comes in way down the list.