Posted by
Steve on Tuesday, January 10, 2012 8:06:30 AM
Today is the New Hampshire primary. Mitt Romney is expected to win with nearly 50% of the vote. Dixville Notch, NH voted and Romney tied with Huntsman, 2-2. The others all received one vote each. That is most likely not how the final vote tally will be, but just interesting material for early morning blogging or news reporting.
The most interesting part of today’s news will be who comes in second. That person will get a jump on the not-Romney vote in future. Reports have either Ron Paul or Rick Santorum as the second place finisher. Whoever picks up second place will get an infusion of money to help them in future campaigns.
Jon Huntsman has gambled on New Hampshire. He expects to do very well there. My guess is that Jon Huntsman will end up in a spot no higher than fourth. I expect the end of the Jon Huntsman campaign in the next couple of days.
I expect Rick Santorum to finish higher than Newt Gingrich. While this will probably not finish off Newt, it should dry up his fundraising sources. People will support you through one or two debacles, but Newt is coming across as vindictive in his defeats. That means people will leave him quicker when the chips are down.
After New Hampshire, I expect that the campaign will be Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul. The others will either drop out or be so damaged that they will be irrelevant. Next week is South Carolina. None of these three candidates have a natural base in the South. Newt would have been expected to do well in South Carolina, but after failing badly in Iowa and New Hampshire, his support will dwindle to insignificance. Rick Perry might have picked up Newt’s supporters if he had done better in the debates. But, Rick Perry is finished as a viable candidate. His poor showing in New Hampshire after a poor showing in Iowa should finish him off. He may stay in past South Carolina, but that is just prolonging the agony.
Right now I do not see anyone that can stop Mitt Romney from obtaining the nomination. The big tempest in a teapot is a comment Mitt made at a campaign stop in the last couple of days. He said that if a company does not perform, they should be fired. Mitt added that he likes to fire companies that do not perform. The other candidates took a portion of Mitt’s comments where he says he likes firing people and are trying to use that as a bludgeon. If you pause to think about it that is the American way. Americans like to hire and fire people that do not live up to their promises. This non-issue should blow over in a day or two when the other candidates and the news media figure out that people agree with Mitt Romney.
I believe that Florida will be the primary where the nomination will be decided. If Mitt Romney wins New Hampshire as expected and then goes on to win South Carolina, Florida should also go into the win column. After that any other candidate left is just in it for personal publicity. The nomination will effectively be won and we can get down to the general election and its myriad issues.
People say they will not vote for a “Mormon” for President. That may be true, but look at their alternative. Barack Obama is supposedly a Christian that believes in Black Liberation Theology. That is far out of the main stream of Christian thought. It is really communism dressed in Christian clothing. Or Obama is a Muslim like has been rumored for years. Either way, Barack Obama’s religion is more out of the main stream of American Christian thought than the LDS (Mormon) Church could ever be. At least Mormons believe in an America that is nearly identical to that believed in by all main stream Christians. Barack Obama’s America is fundamentally different than the America believed in by Christians. Once Christians realize that is their choice, they will vote for a “Mormon” for President. That would be particularly true if Mitt picks an attractive Vice-Presidential candidate for the Christian community. That is an issue for another day, after the nomination is secured.