Posted by
Steve on Monday, January 23, 2012 2:09:40 PM
Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary on Saturday. He had 40% of the vote and Mitt Romney had 28% of the vote.
On the way to work, Rush Limbaugh was saying the reason that Newt is rising in the polls is not his debate performances, but his ability to articulate conservatism. Rush has predicted for years that anyone who can cheerfully articulate conservatism cannot be defeated. Newt is currently riding a wave where he is doing just that. Newt does have a problem where he embraces many hard left ideas like global warming and single payer health insurance. Those will need to be explained, if possible. So, Newt has many chances to implode between now and the convention.
Romney was poised to knock out his opponents with a win in South Carolina and a follow-up win in Florida. That is not going to happen now. In fact, Florida is currently polling for Newt by a narrow margin. That contrasts sharply with the polling that was taken prior to South Carolina. Voting has already started in Florida. The current votes were cast when Mitt Romney had a commanding lead in the polls. That should mean that the early mail-in ballots would be strongly for Mitt Romney. Polling that happens from now on will be with the changed circumstances. I heard that there have been about 250,000 votes already cast in Florida.
The Republican establishment is not happy with the developments out of South Carolina. They wanted this entire election wrapped up by November 2011. That it has gone on this long is giving them fits. South Carolina guarantees that the season will last until late in the spring. The only one of the four remaining candidates that is in real trouble is Rick Santorum. He needed a better showing in South Carolina to have a chance at lasting much longer. He has been operating his campaign on a shoe string since day one. That will not change after these results. In fact, the funding sources could start drying up on him and cause him to get out if he does not do better in Florida.
Ron Paul came in a distant fourth in South Carolina. For most candidates that would indicate that they should drop out. For Ron Paul, it just means he will keep going. But, like I have said before I do not believe that Ron Paul is really in this race to win it. I think he is in the race to get his message out and incorporated into the Republican planks at the convention. Winning the nomination is something that Ron Paul would like to do, but it is not a primary goal of the campaign. Ron Paul wants to have some clout at the convention to impact the planks in the platform.
The race is basically Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney is the establishment candidate. He has done everything the establishment wants to win the nomination. Newt Gingrich is not the establishment candidate. He has to win over the voters in order to have any chance at the nomination. His big problem is his past. Even in his latest book, which just came out within the last year, he wanted to put in a chapter on man-made global warming. He took the chapter out at the last minute because of public outcry. He also was for the individual mandate before Obama was for the individual mandate. Newt has made disparaging remarks about other Republicans that are trying to cut the budget. He has had three wives. Having three wives is not a problem if you handled yourself with decorum in each case. Newt committed adultery with wife 2 before divorcing wife 1. He did the same with wife 3 before divorcing wife 2. One time and I might be forgiving of the indiscretion. Two times and a pattern has developed. If you cannot keep marriage vows, how are you going to keep vows to keep the country safe? Those questions need to be answered between now and the time the nomination is secured. Hopefully they are answered sooner, rather than later.