Posted by
Steve on Monday, July 31, 2006 12:12:15 PM
All this talk of fake global warming is getting a bit stale. There are no facts to back up those that believe in global warming. They only have their computer projections to back up their ideas. Computer projects are just putting their ideas into the computer and seeing how bad they can make it look. This is not science and it surely is not evidence. The best evidence they have is the fact that in 2000 it was warmer than it was in 1900. Of course it was only one degree. That is almost within the range of statistical inaccuracy.
In 1900, people measured things with devices that required the decision maker to actually make a decision. The temperature was recorded as a single degree, not a portion of a degree. Today, our instruments can record that the temperature today reached, say, 101.2 degrees. In the past that would have been 101. So record keeping is more accurate today than 100 years ago, it may not even be one degree rise. Without accurate records we do not even know the answer to that question.
We are going through a warm summer over much of the country, not here in Phoenix. But, the high temperatures are not being recorded as hitting record highs on many days if at all. This means the high temperatures are within the normal range for each specific date. Stringing a few hot days in a row together is nothing new. That has happened all throughout history.
When we first moved into the Phoenix area in the 1980's, there were the hottest summers ever recorded shortly thereafter. We have never reached that level of heat since then. We have occasionally set a new high temperature, but not strung together so many high temperatures in a row.
Also, during the 1980's, we had at least two 100 year floods. That is a flood that has a chance of occurring within a 100 year period. Having two so close together was unusual. Was it a sign of global warming, no. It was a sign that the continental climate conditions were such that it allowed the same type of weather to occur in the short time frame.
We have to be careful in making assumptions with our 100-200 year data pool. When we claim global warming, we are talking a 1000+ year climate pattern. We may be talking a million year climate pattern. Our short time frame for records is not capable of giving us the data necessary to make decisions on these long time frame issues.
We also need to keep in mind that the"little ice age" ended in the 1860's. Of course it is warmer now than it was during the 200 -300 year "little ice age". There is so much about the earth's climate that we do not know, that it is impossible to really make claims of global warming or not. When we finally know all the earth's climate patterns, so we can make accurate predictions every day, then we might be able to make a prediction about global warming. Just look at the local weather forcasters, how accurate is their predictions. In Phoenix, the forecasters have it pretty easy during the summer. They forecast hot and low and behold, it is hot. Any moron could have made that prediction. But they never make accurate monsoon rain predictions. They just do not know enough information about how they occur and where.
I am going to wait on the evidence to tell me if there is global warming. Right now, there is no evidence. There are computer models that predict. But they accurately reproduce the bias of the programmer. If they develop a program from a person that is absolutely convinced there is no global warming and it predicted global warming, maybe I would believe then. Right now, I am sticking to the evidence. I recommend that you do too.