Posted by
Steve on Friday, August 12, 2011 9:02:16 AM
Since the Republicans held a debate last night, it is appropriate to comment on the results of that debate. The Fox News and Washington Examiner questions were hot and cold which limited the ability of the candidates to adequately respond to the questions. Their favoritism of Ron Paul during the foreign policy part of the debate was disconcerting. During foreign policy, Ron Paul was given the opportunity to comment on every point made during the debate. The other candidates were held to a much stricter time line during that portion of the debate. Also, Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty spent a lot of time sniping at one another. That detracted from both of their performances.
Was there a winner of the debate? The answer is probably not. But if you had to pick a winner it had to be Mitt Romney. He won primarily because Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty were busy bashing each other every chance they got. Since Mitt Romney is the front runner, he should have been defending his positions. With the fight between Bachmann and Pawlenty, the other candidates basically left him alone. That allowed him to answer the questions as he wanted to without opposition. As a result, he looked and sounded Presidential even if his answers were not necessarily top notch.
Michele Bachmann came in a clear second, even with her sparring with Tim Pawlenty. Had she not spent so much time bashing Pawlenty, she probably would have been the winner. In typical Bachmann fashion, she misquoted Pawlenty on one occasion. That did not detract from her performance as in a debate people make mistakes. But, it did cause people to remember that she does make unforced errors in quotes and facts.
Newt Gingrich probably came in third, primarily because he called the moderators to task for asking dumb questions. The first time, that tactic worked because the question was about his campaign, not what he would do as President. The second time it made Gingrich appear petty and defensive because the question was about Libya. Newt always comes across as thoughtful and polished and that was the case here. He just did not put distance between himself and the rest of the field like he usually does.
The rest of the field basically tied. Tim Pawlenty needed to make a good hit to make a difference in the Straw Poll on Saturday. He did not make the splash that he needed to make to impact Saturday or even the rest of the campaign. He is a good man and was a good Governor of Minnesota. He just is not that great as a campaigner and has been swamped by the better campaigners. He may last a while longer, but he will drop out fairly soon. The rest of the field will also hang around for a while. They also will drop out before too much more time has passed, especially with Rick Perry entering the race on Saturday.
With Rick Perry entering the race on Saturday, the race boils down to Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann. The rest of the field will drop out after one or two primary votes. Without people voting for them, they will not be able to maintain fundraising to compete. Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann will dominate the fundraising and ultimately the voting as we go forward. At least that is how I see it here in August 2011. Money talks, especially in politics. Generally the best funded candidates come out on top. An underfunded candidate can compete for a primary or two, but over the long haul cannot keep up with the better funded candidate. The same holds true for the general election.
My prediction is that Rick Perry will be the Republican nominee. Mitt Romney’s negatives are just too high for him to defeat a candidate that is as well funded as he is. Michele Bachmann is underfunded compared to Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Unless she pulls out victories in the early primary states, she cannot pull off the final victory. My guess is that whoever wins the nomination will select Michele Bachmann as the Vice-Presidential candidate. She would be an excellent pick for that spot on the ticket.